Ayn Rand

Eurozone & Deflation

Brexit & Japan


France, Frexit, EU & Tail Risk


Monetary policy in a systemic crisis

Central banks have adopted zero interest rate policy, forward guidance, quantitative easing (QE), qualitative easing and now negative interest rate policy, this policy-induced distortions undermining all fundamental approaches to fair value calculations, market pricings and behaviour in global markets.


Brexit, EU & Tail Risk

The EU has been forced to bail out Ireland and Portugal, as well, and Greece for a second time and Spain also must bailed out. The EU's fatal decision making process to bail out Greece in early 2010 indicates that in an ideologically environment such as the EU, it is easier for the political class to ignore objective facts than to depart from the ideological imperative.
The countries with the highest levels of systemic risk are France and the UK. The possibility of Britain withdrawing from the European Union - a "Brexit" - has been receiving growing attention. Outside the EU the UK would be like a economic free Hong Kong, Singapore or independent Switzerland. The Eurozone crisis is the largest tail risk.