Stephan Ludewig

Panic, Leadership & Germany

2012-02-07T04:03:00.001-08:00

Germanophile

"Hegel was among the first to interpret the geographic triad of Germany-France-England as expressing three different existential attitudes: German reflective thoroughness, French revolutionary hastiness, English moderate utilitarian pragmatism. In terms of political stance, this triad can be read as German conservatism, French revolutionary radicalism and English moderate liberalism; in terms of the predominance of one of the spheres of social life, it is German metaphysics and poetry versus French politics and English economy."

Panicking Spain

2012-02-07T04:02:00.001-08:00

Panicking Portuguese

2012-02-01T05:05:00.001-08:00

Feb. 1: Portuguese T-bill auction. German bond auction. Euro-zone January manufacturing PMI data.

Feb. 2: French bond auction.

Feb. 3: Euro-zone January services PMI data.

Feb. 8: German bond auction.

Feb. 9: ECB interest-rate statement, press conference.

Feb. 10: EUR 1.0 billion in Greek debt maturing.

Feb. 13: Italian T-bill auction.

Feb. 14: Italian BTP auction. Greek T-bill auction. German February ZEW economic sentiment indicator.

Feb. 15: Portuguese T-bill auction. Flash data on Q4 EU gross domestic product.

Feb. 16: French bond auction.

Feb. 17: EUR 1.6 billion Greek T-bills maturing.

Feb. 21: European Union finance ministers meet. Greek T-bill auction.

Feb. 22: German bond auction.

Feb. 23: German February Ifo business climate index.

Feb. 24: Italian bond auction.

Feb. 25: Group of 20 finance ministers, central-bank governors meet.

Feb. 27: Belgian bond auction, Italian T-bill auction.

Feb. 28: ECB three-month, three-year long-term refinancing operation. Italian bond auction.

Feb. 29: EUR 10.6 billion of Italian CTZ bonds mature. German bond auction.

March 1: EUR 14.9 billion of Italian BTP and EUR 12.3 billion CCT bonds mature.

March 1-Friday, March 2: EU leaders summit.

Panicking the Eurozone

2012-01-26T04:10:00.000-08:00

panicking the structural imbalances in europe
panicking germany & leadership

Panicking Syria

2012-01-26T03:46:00.001-08:00

Panic & Oil

Panicking Europe

2012-01-16T05:35:00.001-08:00

Thursday, January 19: France will auction 5-year bonds

Thursday, January 19: Spanish 10-, 15-, and 30-year bond auction

Thursday, January 26: Italian long-term bond auction

Monday, January 30: Italian medium-long term bond auction

Monday, January 30: Belgian bond auction

Greece
GGGB10YR:IND
.GRK:IND
Italy
GBTPGR10:IND
ITGERSP:IND
Portuguese
GSPT10YR:IND
.PORTGER:IND
France
GFRN10:IND
FRAGER10:IND
Spain
GSPG10YR:IND
.SPN:IND

Panic & Bond Convexity

2012-01-16T05:34:00.001-08:00

Once upon a time ...

2012-01-03T02:38:00.001-08:00

2012: Panic & Recession

Panicking Europe

2011-12-30T04:45:00.001-08:00

The Euro without Germany

Panicking The Economic Machine

2011-12-13T07:03:00.001-08:00

or why t-bills would not be an appropriate benchmark

Reflexivity & Investing

2011-12-13T07:00:00.001-08:00

Laboratory and field evidence suggests that people often avoid risks with losses even when they might earn a substantially larger gain, a behavioral preference termed “loss aversion.”

reflexivity = function of cognition & operation
r = f (c/o)
cognition = cognitive map
operation = buy/sell decision

def. investing = fear of volatility or losses
*panic investor = fear of volatility
*momentum investor = fear of losses
*value investor = fear of volatility & losses

reflexivity & investing = dynamic hypothesis testing in financial markets/high absolute returns, focus investments, optimize market timing

2012 Panic & Double Dip Recession

2011-12-13T06:52:00.001-08:00

W-Shape

2012 Jubilee!

2011-12-13T06:46:00.001-08:00

1913 marked the beginning of the Fed. The year 2012 will be 99 (50/49) years.

Panicking The Euro

2011-11-30T12:55:00.000-08:00

Panic Zone Or Minsky Moment:
displacement, boom, euphoria, profit taking, and panic

Greece
GGGB10YR:IND
.GRK:IND
Italy
GBTPGR10:IND
ITGERSP:IND
Portuguese
GSPT10YR:IND
.PORTGER:IND
France
GFRN10:IND
FRAGER10:IND
Spain
GSPG10YR:IND
.SPN:IND

The Panic Index

2011-11-29T06:04:00.001-08:00

PANIC INDEX

Eurogeddon & Ecu 2

2011-11-28T14:03:00.001-08:00

Eurozone Breakup

Fear & Minsky Moment

2011-11-27T13:07:00.000-08:00

EZB & Safe Havens No More

Panic & Leadership

2011-11-27T13:03:00.001-08:00

Germany & Protocol 14
Euro/DeutschMark & Inflation/Debt Relation
Triple A Bonds
Piggs Exit

EZB, Eurobonds & The United States Of Europe

2011-11-24T04:03:00.001-08:00

Panicking China 2012

2011-11-24T04:00:00.001-08:00

China's property bubble is starting to deflate. 10% down.

Panic Zone, Germany & EFSF

2011-11-23T03:03:00.001-08:00

Germany Short
German 10-year bonds auction 23.11.2011
government-bonds/germany/
GDBR10:IND

Panic & Volatility of Volatility

2011-11-20T07:04:00.001-08:00

V (Bonds) > V (Stocks)

Tchaikovsky Swanlake Pas de Quatre

2011-11-20T04:07:00.001-08:00

Michael Jackson & Diana Ross

2011-11-19T12:10:00.001-08:00

Euro Zone Panic & 7%

2011-11-19T08:23:00.001-08:00

Austria Short
GAGB10YR:IND
GBTPGR10:IND
ITGERSP:IND
.....
Hungary Short
GHGB10:IND
Cyprius Short
Slovenia Short
Portugal Short
.PORTGER:IND
France Short
GFRN10:IND
FRAGER10:IND
Spain Short
GSPG10YR:IND
.SPN:IND
Belgium Short
GBGB10YR:IND
.BELGGER:IND
.......
Panic Zone
piigs danger zone

Leonardo Da Vinci

2011-11-18T03:35:00.000-08:00

London

Syria & Oil Pricing

2011-11-18T03:19:00.000-08:00

Syria could hit the oil price, in 2010 Syria produced around 385.000 barrels (61,200m3) per day of crude oil.

New Europe Or Why Guns are better than Gold!

2011-11-16T04:33:00.001-08:00

European Panic Zone & The New Core Europe

2011-11-16T03:55:00.001-08:00

Europe = UDSSR

Panicking The Euro Core Zone

2011-11-10T11:33:00.001-08:00

Euro & Deutsche Mark

7/33/464

Reflexivity: Eur/Usd & Dow Correlation

2011-11-10T11:07:00.001-08:00

Panicking Europe, Italy & Austria

2011-11-10T11:06:00.001-08:00

LvMises, FAHayek & EconomicEquilibrium

2011-11-09T03:52:00.001-08:00

Economic models are mostly wrong, they based on "how we would like people to act" rather than "how people actually act",these models aren’t always reliable for decision-making guidance.

Iran & Oil Price

2011-11-09T03:23:00.001-08:00

The Oil bourse could hit USD/Oil Price relation,
see PetroChina Invest

Panicking Europe Or Why should we buy the EFSF

2011-11-09T03:03:00.001-08:00

Panicking Europe & France

2011-11-09T02:40:00.000-08:00

France Short
GFRN10:IND
FRAGER10:IND

Panicking US Or Why should we invest in Marilyn & Lindsay

2011-11-08T01:23:00.001-08:00

Panicking Europe & GRD

2011-11-06T08:50:00.001-08:00

Europe & the Drachma (GRD)
Drachma, Welcome back!

Trading with the SNB

2011-11-06T08:42:00.001-08:00

EUR/CHF 1.25
Snb currency swap but see the Chf/Bondmarket relation

Panicking Europe & Italy

2011-11-06T08:41:00.001-08:00

Italy Short ITAGER10:IND

GBTPGR10:IND

Chet Baker Lets get lost

2011-10-30T04:20:00.001-07:00

Syria & Oil Pricing

2011-10-30T04:15:00.001-07:00

Could Syria hit the oilprice...in 2010, Syria produced around 385,000 barrels (61,200 m³) per day of crude oil.

Climate Change, CO2 Emission & Africa

2011-10-29T14:57:00.001-07:00

Microsoft, Psychedelics & Bob

2011-10-29T14:33:00.001-07:00

Panicking Europe, EFSF & EZB

2011-10-29T14:32:00.005-07:00

EZB & EFSF, 1000 billion may not be enough
Italy, Spain, France

Amy Winehouse

2011-10-29T05:42:00.001-07:00

Amy Jade Winehouse

Stronger than me

Panicking Europe, EFSF & China

2011-10-29T05:26:00.001-07:00

Panicking Eur/Usd, Eur/Cny & USD/Cny Correlation
No quick china deal

Panicking Europe, UK & Recession

2011-10-29T05:25:00.001-07:00

EU & United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland

Panicking Europe, EFSF & Euro

2011-10-26T07:42:00.001-07:00

EFSF = CDO
Italy & Spain: 911 billion may not be enough
Risk: Zero Correlation isnt possible

Panicking Europe, CN & Eur/Usd

2011-10-25T08:43:00.000-07:00

Non Commercials, Eur/Usd Shorts & China

Panic Selling, Banking & ETFs

2011-10-13T02:22:00.003-07:00

ETFs, Banking & Growth
Ft = FIxxI; ETF = CDO

Panicking Europe & Italy

2011-10-13T02:22:00.001-07:00

Italy is going to be the next Greece
211/283 billion may not be enough replacing EFSF

!ITAGER10:IND

2011-10-06T13:04:00.001-07:00

Prometheus
.......
Bedecke deinen Himmel, Zeus,
Mit Wolkendunst!
Und übe, Knaben gleich,
Der Disteln köpft,
An Eichen dich und Bergeshöhn!
Musst mir meine Erde
Doch lassen stehn,
Und meine Hütte,
Die du nicht gebaut,
Und meinen Herd,
Um dessen Glut
Du mich beneidest.

Ich kenne nichts Ärmeres
Unter der Sonn als euch Götter.
Ihr nähret kümmerlich
Von Opfersteuern
Und Gebetshauch
Eure Majestät
Und darbtet, wären
Nicht Kinder und Bettler
Hoffnungsvolle Toren.

Da ich ein Kind war,
Nicht wusste, wo aus, wo ein,
Kehrte mein verirrtes Aug
Zur Sonne, als wenn drüber wär
Ein Ohr zu hören meine Klage,
Ein Herz wie meins,
Sich des Bedrängten zu erbarmen.

Wer half mir wider
Der Titanen Übermut?
Wer rettete vom Tode mich,
Von Sklaverei?
Hast du's nicht alles selbst vollendet,
Heilig glühend Herz?
Und glühtest, jung und gut,
Betrogen, Rettungsdank
Dem Schlafenden dadroben?

Ich dich ehren? Wofür?
Hast du die Schmerzen gelindert
Je des Beladenen?
Hast du die Tränen gestillet
Je des Geängsteten?

Hat nicht mich zum Manne geschmiedet
Die allmächtige Zeit
Und das ewige Schicksal,
Meine Herren und deine?

Wähntest du etwa,
Ich sollte das Leben hassen,
In Wüsten fliehn,
Weil nicht alle Knabenmorgen-
Blütenträume reiften?

Hier sitz ich, forme Menschen
Nach meinem Bilde,
Ein Geschlecht, das mir gleich sei,
Zu leiden, weinen,
Geniessen und zu freuen sich,
Und dein nicht zu achten,
Wie ich.

Johann Wolfgang von Goethe 1749-1832

Panic Selling & The Fund Creator

2011-09-13T04:06:00.001-07:00

Simple Dynamic Futures Trading Strategies
Volatility (7%-13%), Skewness, Robustness, Zero Correlation

Panicking Europe: Germany & EMS

2011-09-07T02:33:00.000-07:00

700 billion may not be enough....see dax (fdax future) contract correlation

Market Panic, Robustness & Sustainability

2011-09-07T01:42:00.000-07:00

Whats about spending, the unemployment rate, infrastructure programs, flat tax,.....increasing the economy's productivity rate, which often requires the application of new technology and resources, can take many years or even decades to realize. It is probably not a short-term stimulus. The persistence of a economic system’s characteristic behavior and decision making under perturbations or conditions of uncertainty def. a robust and sustainable economic system.....

Panicking Switzerland, Euro & Gold

2011-09-06T16:50:00.000-07:00

Eur/Chf; Usd/Chf
Panicking SNB
Chf: 100 billion won`t be enough.....
targeting Eur/Chf 1.20/1.25/1.30
swiss franc is new deutsche mark

Panic Selling, VIX & Recession

2011-09-05T01:50:00.001-07:00

w shape recession, see outlook 2011: 2011 is 2008

..... what went wrong

Panicking Europe: Germany & Italy

2011-09-05T01:49:00.001-07:00

Panicking the Euro & 10 Year Italian-German bond yield spread ITAGER10:IND
Italy is going to be the next Greece.

Panic Selling: The Tàijí Of Corporate Finance & Tobins Q Ratio

2011-08-29T02:51:00.000-07:00

Panic & Tail Risk
Q / S&P 500 .......
20% or 40% down

Panicking the Dax

2011-08-27T06:57:00.001-07:00

The Dax Future & Euro Correlation

Panicking the Euro & Germany: The New European Bailout

2011-08-27T06:13:00.001-07:00

The Fed, Euro, Stockmarkets & Europe

Panic, CDS Spreads & Germany

2011-08-10T07:13:00.001-07:00

Correlation CDS Spreads & Bond Yields
09.2011

Panic & France

2011-08-08T11:23:00.001-07:00

Europe & La Révolution française

Panic, Bond Markets & Liquidity

2011-08-08T11:22:00.002-07:00

The End Of Economic Growth
Where have all the stimuli gone & how to measure the input/output relation (change measurement.......)

Panic & Swiss Franc

2011-08-08T11:22:00.000-07:00

Swiss franc is new deutsche mark

Europe & The Euro

2011-08-05T03:26:00.000-07:00

Germany, Piigs & Europe Or

why the costs of Euro is getting too high

US & Japanese Balance Sheet Recession

2011-08-05T03:20:00.000-07:00

QE3...

Panic Selling, Perception & Volatility

2011-08-05T02:40:00.001-07:00

Panic selling naturally creates great buying opportunities for well-informed traders and investors. Those who know when the selling is over can benefit from the retracements that often occur afterwards.
Eventually, fear arises in investors as they start to think that the market is not as strong as they initially assumed. Inevitably, the market collapses on itself as that fear turns to panic selling, creating a vicious spiral that brings the market to a point lower than it was before the panic selling started, and from which it will likely take years to recover. The crowd is never wrong, reflexivity in financial markets.

Postindustrialsm & Postcapitalism

2011-08-05T02:38:00.001-07:00

Panic Selling & Margin Calls

2011-08-05T02:37:00.001-07:00

Animal Spirit & Postcapitalism

2011-08-02T01:28:00.000-07:00

Agroecology & Postcapitalism

2011-08-02T01:25:00.001-07:00

Debt Trauma & Postcapitalism

2011-08-02T01:24:00.001-07:00

Climate Change, Desertification & Agroecology

2011-08-01T15:58:00.000-07:00

Geopolitical Panic: China, USA & Europe

2011-07-31T04:51:00.001-07:00

Debt Crisis, CDS & Panic

2011-07-31T04:47:00.000-07:00

Debt Trauma & Economic Growth

2011-07-30T05:02:00.001-07:00

Great Britain & Stagflation

2011-07-30T05:00:00.001-07:00

Debt Crisis, Perception & Panic

2011-07-28T05:32:00.000-07:00

הר מועד Harmagedon

Eur/Usd & Eur/Chf Relation

2011-07-26T06:01:00.001-07:00

Swiss franc is new deutsche mark

Amy Winehouse, Self-Ownership & Freedom

2011-07-26T05:25:00.000-07:00

Economic Panic

2011-07-22T04:51:00.001-07:00

Innovation & Creative Destruction

2011-07-21T05:50:00.001-07:00

M * V = P * Y & Creative Destruction

2011-07-21T05:12:00.000-07:00

Debt Crisis & Decision Making

2011-07-17T03:25:00.003-07:00

972

Objektivism & Korallarium

2011-07-15T01:59:00.001-07:00

Entrepreneurial Spirit & Mark l

2011-07-15T01:57:00.001-07:00

Panic & Debt-Default

2011-07-13T11:14:00.001-07:00

Debt Crisis, Inflation & Commodities

2011-07-11T14:03:00.003-07:00

Debt Crisis & Recession

2011-07-11T14:00:00.001-07:00

The Dynamical World Of Oil Trading

2011-06-26T05:11:00.000-07:00

The Panther

2011-06-26T04:33:00.000-07:00

.....
His gaze, going past those bars, has got so misted
with tiredness, it can take in nothing more.
He feels as though a thousand bars existed,
and no more world beyond them than before.

Those supply powerful paddings, turning there
in tiniest of circles, well might be
the dance of forces round a centre where
some mighty will stands paralyticly.

Just now and then the pupils' noiseless shutter
is lifted. - Then an image will indart,
down through the limbs' intensive stillness flutter,
and end its being in the heart.

Der Panther

Im Jardin des Plantes, Paris

Sein Blick ist vom Vorübergehn der Stäbe
so müd geworden, dass er nichts mehr hält.
Ihm ist, als ob es tausend Stäbe gäbe
und hinter tausend Stäben keine Welt.

Der weiche Gang geschmeidig starker Schritte,
der sich im allerkleinsten Kreise dreht,
ist wie ein Tanz von Kraft um eine Mitte,
in der betäubt ein großer Wille steht.

Nur manchmal schiebt der Vorhang der Pupille
sich lautlos auf -. Dann geht ein Bild hinein,
geht durch der Glieder angespannte Stille -
und hört im Herzen auf zu sein.

R.M.Rilke

Dialectical Dynamic Trading

2011-06-18T06:37:00.000-07:00

by Dr. Stephan Ludewig

The Hegelian dialectic of thesis-antithesis-synthesis can provide a perspicacious framework for analyzing the evolutionary process of economic change. The central concept of dialectical theorists is the contradiction.

Attached you will find a dialetical trading model: a dynamic sum concept is described, operationalizing the effect of the dialetical dynamic trading process.

Greece: The Bailout

2011-06-18T06:31:00.000-07:00

Monetary Analysis & Price Stability: The Behavioral Component

2011-05-29T03:09:00.000-07:00

Catallaxy & 5 Rules for a Recesession

2011-05-29T03:08:00.000-07:00

Dialectical & Pair Trading

2011-05-29T03:03:00.003-07:00

Dialectical Trading

2011-03-26T03:57:00.000-07:00

Every movement is contradictory per se

Japan & The Global Panic Selling

2011-03-15T04:45:00.000-07:00

Japan